The Bad And The Ugly Of Sales Forecasting
Monday, June 7th, 2010
There are only a few things that really matter to sales management. Let me present them in order of importance:
1. How much you’re selling (specifically, your last month/quarter).
2. The quantity and quality of what’s in your pipeline.
3. Your sales forecast.
Why Does The Sales Forecast Come In Last?
Conventional sales forecasting comes in last because we all know it’s a fairly worthless exercise. We also know it’s a bad habit the sales profession can’t seem to replace with something that works.
The TAS Group recently completed a survey of 200 companies that showed the average sales professional spends 2.5 hours per week on sales forecasting.
For the majority of companies in that study, their sales forecasts had an error rate of 25%+. Does it make sense for sales professionals to spend almost 11 hours per month on sales forecasting when the accuracy is less than 75%?
Why This Matters
Poor sales forecasting practices can negatively influence organizations in many ways:
- It wastes the sales professional’s time.
- There is no real feedback loop for sales professionals and their managers to prioritize and channel their efforts.
- Accurate allocation and planning of resources (e.g. sales support, operations, marketing) is compromised.
- Every sales professional’s forecast is moved upstream in the sales management food chain. His or her forecast is touched (i.e. manipulated) many times. The time wasted each month extends well beyond the time investment from just the sales force.
Is CRM (Customer Relationship Management) The Answer?
Large companies that use CRM systems list the ability to accurately forecast sales as number two on their wish list for their CRM software. Isn’t this supposed to be a key functionality built into CRM systems? I’m confused.
The TSA Group states that the majority of CRM companies don’t use their own software for sales forecasting. Sobering thought.
CRM, in its current form, is not getting the job done. It’s simply not seen as a provider of accurate sales forecasting.
How Things Might Be Improved
Organizations need to simplify their sales forecasting process. Most sales forecasting systems (CRM and non-CRM) put too much emphasis on the “who, when and why” instead of the “what and how.”
Sales management is frequently guilty of forgetting that the primary benefactor of a good sales forecasting process is the sales professional.
CRM providers need to start over. The complexity of these systems is beyond ridiculous. No sales professional (or anyone in sales management for that matter) is going to seriously deal with all the data entry, drop downs and radio buttons involved in these systems masquerading as forecasting tools.
I feel that dozens of people designed each of these systems and all of them got their way.
Most salespeople bang in the minimum amount of information the CRM system requires and quickly move on to something important – like selling. The information coming out of the CRM system is unreliable as a result.
Sales Tips Conclusion
Sales forecasting is important in sales. I’m surprised that most sales organizations still operate without the accurate metrics they need.
©2010 Scott R. Sheaffer


